Abstract

This study was undertaken to develop a decision-making model that can be used to facilitate the minimization of rate of failure of subsea manifold. The prevailing criteria’s/influencing factors that contributed to the failure of subsea manifold using a combined fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), Bayesian Network, Simple addictive weight method (SAW) and Entropy method (EM) were revealed. From the findings, wrong installation (WI) was the most influencing factors that contributed to the failure of the subsea manifold. The FAHP application in the study, revealed that WI is the major factor/failure mode of the subsea manifold failure. In BN analysis, the criteria were stated and defined, the posterior probabilities of the subsea manifold failing and working were revealed using the BN Genie software and their interdependency were observed as the states were varied respectively. The posterior probability of subsea manifold failure from BN analysis gave high possibility that WI was the key criterion that contributed to failure of the subsea system. The results from SAW technique also attributed the subsea manifold failure to WI. Evidence from Entropy method attributes subsea manifold failure to corrosion. Thus, a comparative analysis from the decision tools with respect to the criteria were analysed, and it showed that WI is the prevailing factor/failure mode that contributed to subsea manifold failure during subsea processes. It is therefore of utmost interest that during subsea production processes, more attention should be given to the installation phase, and the process should incorporate experts to minimize failure modes and impending failures.